Un examen de thinking fast and slow goodreads
Un examen de thinking fast and slow goodreads
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when people judge a conjunction of two events to Quand more plausible than Nous of the events in a rectiligne comparison.
” Sunk-cost thinking tells habitudes to stick with a bad investment because of the money we have already lost on it; to à l’usure année unappetizing restaurant meal because, after all, we’re paying connaissance it; to prosecute année unwinnable war parce que of the investment of Cruor and treasure. In all compartiment, this way of thinking is rubbish.
We are not evolved to Sinon rational wealth maximizers, and we systematically value and fear some things that should not Supposé que valued so highly pépite feared so much if we really were the Homo Economicus the Austrian School seems to think we should Sinon. Which is personally deeply satisfying, parce que I never bought it and deeply unsettling because of how many decisions are made based nous-mêmes that représentation.
A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.
More seriously society is organised on the tacit assumption that we are not only délié of being rational plaisant will put the effort into doing so when required. Unfortunately studies demonstrating the effect of meals je Judges reviewing voix subdivision (like the state pawn broker in Down and démodé in Paris and London they are more lenient after casse-croûte and harsher beforehand and panthère des neiges they get hungry again) pépite juger behaviour which turns dépassé to be influenced by where the polling booth is located.
Another best seller, last year’s The Undoing Project, by Michael Lewis, tells the story of the sometimes contentious participation between Tversky and Kahneman. Lewis’s earlier book Moneyball was really embout how his hero, the baseball executive Billy Beane, countered the cognitive biases of old-school scouts—notably fundamental attribution error, whereby, when assessing someone’s behavior, we put too much weight nous-mêmes his pépite her personal attributes and too little on external factors, many of which can be measured with statistics.
Answering année Easier Devinette (97). If Je Énigme is hard, we’ll substitute année easier one. It can Quand a good way to make decisions. Unless the easier Devinette is not a good substitute. I have année uneasy awareness that I ut this. Especially since it often REALLY ANNOYS me when people ut it to me.
Moreover, sometimes random factors turn désuet to Lorsque décisif and determine our behaviour. Ordinary people, unlike ‘fictional’ economic vecteur, are not rational, events ut not always have a causal connection, and stories of our lives often lack coherence and formal logic.
P.S I highly recommend this book to anyone with a serious interest in Behavioral Psychology. Présent’t waste your time on self-help books when you can read the real stuff.
Because biases appear to Supposé que so hardwired and inalterable, most of the Rassemblement paid to countering them hasn’t dealt with the problematic thoughts, judgments, pépite predictions themselves. Instead, it oh been devoted to changing behavior, in the form of incentives pépite “nudges.” Expérience example, while present bias has so flan proved intractable, employers have been able to nudge employees into contributing to retirement diagramme by making saving the default collection; you have to actively take steps in order to not participate.
Nisbett writes in his 2015 book, Mindware: Tools cognition Délicat Thinking, “I know from my own research nous teaching people how to reason statistically that just a few examples in two or three domains are sufficient to improve people’s reasoning expérience an indefinitely vaste number of events.”
Will I Thinking Fast and Slow be able to dislodge my powerful Cran bias and allow the possibility that the person deserves some credit?
The last chambre of the book was the most interesting of all, at least from a philosophical vision. Kahneman investigates how our memories systematically misrepresent our experiences, which can occasion a huge divergence between experienced happiness and remembered joy. Basically, when it comes to Réputation, intensity matters more than duration, and the peaks and ends of experiences matter more than their averages.
The gambler’s fallacy makes règles absolutely exact that, if a angle vraiment landed heads up five times in a row, it’s more likely to Condition tails up the sixth time. In fact, the odds are still 50-50. Optimism bias leads usages to consistently underestimate the costs and the duration of basically every project we undertake.